Roger, according to "standard measures" of valuation, you are probably right, but I remember an argument about AMZN and YHOO about two years ago, and these were ludicrously valued just to go to extremely ludicrous valuations. Right now, despite the very high valuation relative to the cycle, I have raised my target to the $65 to $70 range, and it is purely a technical call. I have noticed that stocks that make new highs when the rest of the market is tumbling, as it has in the last two weeks, often end up doubling from that level six to 12 months down the road. That is how I identified at the time some very successful six months trades like QLGC, RMBS and few others. But, on a purely fundamental basis, I cannot come up with an argument to justify prices much above current prices. Mind you, if you intend to short it, I would wait for a break in the bullish pattern (meaning a close under $25 or so).
Good luck out there.
Zeev |
