To all - my wife and I sold all of our JDSU in the past few days.
I was hoping to get some input, thoughts, opinions ... because I hope to be back in JDSU at some point in the future.
The only reason we sold was because of what I think of as the "Cisco Systems" type dilemma :
JDS Uniphase does seem to be in one of the best businesses imaginable right now.
That business should continue to grow nicely for a long time no matter what.
A lot of institutional investors will probably continue to own JDSU regardless of the share price level.
But ... the thing that bugged me was :
Just like CSCO, I just could not cope with the valuation level (of JDSU).
When I heard that the latest quarter's earnings were (a better than expected) 18 cents a share, I thought : Okay, 18 times 4, allow for some good growth right now, over the remaining nine months of the year ... call it $1.00.
So, we are at a price earnings ratio of over 200 ?
(I do remember people doing similar calculations with Qualcomm. But, us diehard Qualcomm fanatics would rapidly respond : (Qualcomm) earnings were hugely depressed by the (now sold) infrastructure division, and the (now sold) handset division. AND -- the real growth for Qualcomm starts in about a year, with 1xrtt and HDR stuff ...)
Are there similar "if you knew JDSU the way we knew JDSU things" ?
(I have NOT had time to read most of the 3000+ posts written since my post #2584).
Also, I am sure that the pending acquisitions of both Optical Coating Laboratory and E-TEK Dynamics will be good for JDSU, but I assume that these acquisitions are funded with shares of JDSU.
And, even though I do believe that smart managers can pull off the old "1 + 1 = more than 2" with an acquisition, is there some huge amount of anticipation of good things from the mergers ?
Also, if there are anti-trust objections to the mergers, is this a big problem, or no big deal ?
Thanks in advance.
Jon. |
