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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: yard_man who wrote (4909)2/1/2000 5:32:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (4) of 5676
 
My belief in the current crash scenario was undermined by yesterday's market action.

Wave count on the SPX from the 12/31 top

1 (or A) to 1/5
2 (or B) to 1/14
3 (or C) begins with a leading diagonal from 1/14 morning to 1/19 open, then 2 of 3 to 1/20 morning. 3 of 3 from 1/20 high to 1/25 low (breaks down nicely to 5 waves in itself to fully comply with the extended 3 rule) 4 of 3 a bearish rising wedge from 1/25 low to 1/27 high. 5 of 3 to 1/31 low.

Now yesterday's bounce already overlapped on 1/5 low. This gives support to the competing count that says a sharp ABC correction was just completed.
If this is true, then the surge from 10/99 to 12/99 was only minor 1 of Intermediate 5, and we just started on minor 3 that will take us to new highs.
The LT wave count of the Russell 2000 also supports new highs later this year, as it has only completed 3 of 3 from 10/98 low and should now develop a trading range for the 4 of 3, supported by the 4/98 high, before charging on.
Also European markets look too strong, although erratic, and I need to see them get in phase.

However, conventional support line at SPX 1400 is broken, and I'd like to see a close over 1404 to be convinced this was a bear trap.
Still, T+22

ATG
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