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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Enigma who wrote (2407)	2/1/2000 8:53:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) of 3536

It looks like we share the same concern. It was nice to see the Dollar trading in a nice range bound area. Now that we have spiked hard, now the market will have to anticipate the eventual downward spike. However, if the Fed continues to increase rates an overall 3/4 over the next couple of months, then the return on US bonds will attract even more capital, particularly from Japan whose $12 Trillion in bondholders/cash savings will be looking for a safe harbor in which to dock, potentially providing support for the dollar in this range. Given that I think we all anticipate that the Japanese are facing some tough decisions, what with their national debt heading for 150% of their GDP, I can only believe that they will have to monetize some of that debt in order to shock their economy into some form of action. Pardon the pun, but IMO Japan is a mystery, wrapped in an Enigma... <VBG> I still can't figure out the dynamics that will drive that market over the next 5 years. All I know/feel is that the yen can't maintain such an unsustainable level in the face of its increasing debt and non-performing economy. Regards, Ron

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