Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (33947)	2/1/2000 12:01:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (4) of 70976

Gottfried, I think people forget that there was a lot of equipment and upgrades purchased last year. This equipment has increased the production capability of fabs significantly, along with the ongoing device mask shrinks. I suspect that there is more than adequate chip supply for the short-mid term. This equipment needs to now pay for itself, fabs will want to increase the profit margins without incurring more expenses. They need time to "digest" the equipment they have recently purchased before taking on more debt, IMO. Yes, there will be strategic upgrade purchases to compliment new chip/mask designs, but I don't forsee a wholesale replacement of fab equipment in most fabs, right now they are more interested in maximizing profits/revenues with their present equipment sets. The real boom is 2-3 years away when the newer sub 0.18uM devices are the technology of choice, for now 0.18uM to 0.25uM is still leading edge for most fabs, and there is still a very nice market for 0.35uM devices/chip technology. I suspect an interim growth rest period will occur as chip surplus starts flooding the market again this summer. Just my opinion, BB

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