Some good points, and the situation bears watching (as always), but regarding the purchases to date: this was coming out of an unforseen ( again, as always :) downturn, a downturn where capital expenditures were pulled back. So, a good deal of purchases to date have been catch-up ball to some debatable degree. Also, technology upgrades don't necessarily lead to more output. It may, depends on the chip type, but also new graphs show shrinks in the sub-.25 arena have less and less impact on increases devices out relative to prior shrinks.
That's why we are even talking about 300mm wafers, because shrinks running out of gas. The good news so far is that the industry has not gone hog wild with companies, and more importantly, countries i.e. Korea staying conservative with new factories. For some reason ( maturity?) the last downturn is actually being remembered this time around.
As long as chip demand keeps incresing, and there is no flood of new factories arising all at once as in the past, these are in my mind the requisites for the projected 2-3 steady rise in semi equip business.
I like to watch closely the capital budgets, especially changes. Intel , TI, and Tawian have all had positive adjustments so the trend is our friend. So far! |
