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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Eric Jacobson who wrote (16920)2/1/2000 3:28:00 PM
From: StockHawk  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Re: Harmonic (HLIT) Project Hunt Report

Excellent report, thoughtful, nicely balanced analysis. Thank you.

Some thoughts on cable modem service: you wrote

>>Broadband connections provide internet content roughly fifty times faster than dial-up (56k) modems for roughly twice the cost ($40/month vs. $20/month). <<

and

>>In a traditional architecture, each node was designed to serve 500-2000 homes...performance can become sluggish as customer usage increases. This was experienced by some @Home customers several years ago. <<

I believe most cable modem users experience such slowdowns on a daily basis. Cable, for most users is likely to be closer to 5 ties faster rather than 50 times faster than a dial-up modem. I therefore found this next piece quite interesting:

>>The LightWire architecture is intended to eliminate this bottleneck and provide additional capacity by (1)subdividing nodes to serve approximately 50-100 homes, and (2) providing DWDM technology at the node<<

This would appear to be a valuable innovation, as the primary negative of cable modem service verses DSL is generally said to be the ultimate slowness of the shared service as usage increases.

>>there is not a proprietary open architecture. Most of the intellectual property in use is in the public domain (i.e., DWDM), is jointly developed and is shared (LightWire)<<

I wonder if LightWire might have the potential to develop into a proprietary open architecture? It was developed with AT&T and, so far, AT&T is the only customer - and just in test phase at that - but who would control sales to other potential customers? Perhaps HLIT retained enough rights in the end product to make this an interesting development to watch. Would you agree, or am I missing something here?

StockHawk
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