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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 304.84-0.8%3:59 PM EST
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To: Tony Viola who wrote (33968)2/1/2000 3:43:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
>> I can see the cycles going on for DRAM, but not so sure for everything else semi. Or is that too simple minded an assumption? One assumption,
within my assumption is that non-DRAM companies don't excessively overbuild or dump, those sorts of things. Maybe a pollyanna assumption?<<

I think your assumptions are too simple-minded. First, DRAMs are still a huge fraction of the market. If they have huge swings, the market as a whole will have swings. Second, the whole point of a foundry is that it can make anything. Foundries therefore tend to commodify *all* chip products, encouraging DRAM-like overbuilding. And finally, even Intel, perhaps the most consistent fab builder and highest-margin chip maker out there, cut back capital spending significantly during the most recent downturn.

Katherine
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