Sam, the simplest answer to your inquiry about how large the compound semiconductor market can be is that there doesn't exist enough gallium on earth to replace more than 1% of the Si transistors which exist today. Remember that Si comes from sand, and Ga is a trace metal in aluminum.
That said, III-Vs will be essential to photonics for the simple reason that they can emit light efficiently. However, their cost will confine them to high performance applications, and there is a limit to how far down the cost can go, because of the scarcity of the materials.
One public company which comes to mind in this equipment industry is PlasmaTherm which is the equivalent of Lam Research in the compound semiconductor industry.
I agree with Marie that the big Si boys aren't going to move into this equipment market anytime soon, and if they do, they won't find the market very easy. Presently, manufacturing techniques haven't converged enough to permit economies of scale in the equipment industry. Most people want flexible machines since they aren't sure what they will use them for down the road. |
