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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony,

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To: Kevin Podsiadlik who wrote (51036)2/1/2000 5:06:00 PM
From: out_of_the_loop  Read Replies (2) of 122087
 
Kevin, with all due respect, you have no idea how Zicam is selling or the company's targets. They are starting international sales once they can meet domestic demand (read:it is selling as fast or faster than they can produce it). There is a waiting list for stores who want to carry it while the largest customers are filled first.

You are competing against institutional buying. Anthony can decide if he wants to try to "rescue" you guys if he wants, but publicity has not even begun on this - just today's PR -and the study included an arm that will test whether Zicam can prevent infections with rhinoviruses. That part of the study was not made public. Once it is (yes, I am assuming it will show prophylactic benefit), people will want it for their kids at college, they will want to buy it in airports, and doctors will have their patients buy it - it is cheaper, more effective and it is already for sale in over 50,000 stores (compared to pleconaril - a drug that has not received final FDA approval and costs 5-10x as much (and is a prescription med).

Insurance companies will not want to pay for (and they will not pay for) expensive meds that are less effective than OTC meds. It's called "institutional review policy" and it is a reality.

Since nicotine gum is probably more profitable to GumTech within a year than Zicam, once the details of the Swedish Match joint venture are disclosed, the stock price will discount that. Product should be out in the summer some time.

BTW, notice that the financing, not a "death spiral" as some of your cronies claimed, is more than half paid in less than 8 months.
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