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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (33969)	2/2/2000 12:56:00 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 70976

2 Cycle or not to Cycle? On the question: "Is the cycle dead or will it bottom?" Not sure who to ask, but I want to throw these out for chewing on by the group. Thought #1: Do you think global players like DELL and HWP, etc. will reverse trend and bring more manufacturing of chips in-house? I believe HWP addressed this by investing in Charter Semi in Singapore, but it seems that they are at the mercy of the market in good times when they outsource too much. Thought #2: Consumer products: How does HDTV fit into the demand forecast for chips? Just in your car, how about GPS, collision avoidance systems and the equivalent of several PCs inside cars? How about digital cameras, memory sticks, MP3 players, etc... all using chips. I would think that the move of chips from the desk of technically savvy people into autos, TVs, etc might add an order of magnitude or more to the square inches of Silicon consumed per capita. That would take 200mm to 300mm and then a few feature shrinks to meet that demand. Thought #3 What would cause us to not see that huge ramp in demand? Besides the World becoming Amish, I just don't see it. cheers! Kirk out

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