Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (33976)	2/2/2000 1:03:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Hiya PV!! I think there will always be cycles, we have been in an upcycle for about 4-5 months now. Amazing to think that just last summer it was doom and gloom, how quickly people forget! If I recall correctly the last down cycle started in late spring of '98 thru about Sept '99. About 15 months or so. I need to look at Gottfrieds' charts on B2B, etc. to refresh my memory. (GREAT CHARTS GOTTFRIED!!) The thing to remember is that there is about a 4-6 month lag time for the equipment manufacturers from the chip manufacturers cycles. The wild card in the current scenario is the FED's bias to raise interest rates to slow down the economy and curtail growth. My thinking is that it will have an impact on US capital expenditures, however, it may have the opposite effect where US chip companies seek less expensive financing and build fabs overseas or just rely on foreign foundries to manufacture more of their products. This promotes growth offshore and once again pushes American technological leadership in an industry, overseas, just like the television, stereo, vcr, etc. JMO BB

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