Mad2, I appreciate your intelligent discussion of the short side. There are all too many posters who post garbage such as "this is a crim stock", or whatever. Obviously there are reasons why the company could fail, and even more reasons why the company might not meet wildly optimistic forecasts, so it is nice to see someone discuss those possibilities.
One thing you are missing, I think, is that not all stores stocked up in the 4th quarter. My guess is that their penetration of the establishments carrying cold medications was still quite low at the end of December if viewed on a nationwide basis. Where I live I went looking for Zicam in late December/early January, and had to go to several stores to find it. Even now it is not in any convenience stores, grocery, or general merchandise stores. In fact I have only seen it at two drugstores, OSCO and Walgreens, and Walgreens added it after the first of the year.
Therefore I think you will see more shelf-stocking sales this quarter. Furthermore, since up to now sales have grown only by word-of-mouth, many consumers are still unaware of the product, and others have just learned. Thus it is reasonable to assume that actual sell through is still accelerating. Therefore I believe that sales for Q1 will probably exceed Q4 by a good margin. I don't expect the kind of numbers some here have posted, but I would expect a significant increase.
Carl |
