Also if there was that much latent demand for crees product,
other companies would be rushing in to fill the void on their own
since cree ceo has confirmed that current customers are on allocation. i am certain you are right in that other companies would love to rush in and fill the void...just two little problems...first they have to learn how to make high quality SiC in commercial quantities...then they have to invent, mfr, and sell devices made from SiC...of course they have to do both without infringing on cree's patent portfolio.
the demand for LEDs is growing so fast that other companies are rushing to fill the void using sapphire. the advantage cree has is SiC is considerably less expensive than sapphire and is technically superior. what in fact is happening is that cree is producing superior products at lower cost with higher margins (53%) than their competition. the demand is there...cree is capturing it.
i believe we will see some major partnering and/or licensing very soon. perhaps i should send the cree staff copies of moore's three books. VBG
In sum cree's product is in the early stages of it's adoption cycle and the tornado will form based on the true merits of the product and cree is ramping up capacity in anticipation of that.
i agree.
the most recent design wins including auto light bulbs, nokia and panasonic cell phones and sony PII are certainly a positive indicator of the merits of SiC LEDs.
re. other uses of SiC, we are all waiting for product announcements for RF, microwave, power switches, pcs base station, laser, etc., products. cree believes the margins will be even higher on these products.
with current 20% sequential revenue growth...and the huge new production facilities coming on line in june and october...continued rev growth acceleration seems assured.
i visualise cree as being at the bottom of the steepest part of the gorilla game bell curve.
cree's last quarter revs were about $24 million. i was briefed on yesterday's BofA report, i do not have a copy yet. i was told the report says they believe cree's annual market potential is $10 billion. lots of room to grow between those two numbers. i did not get the details of that market as seen by BofA. if anyone has a breakdown of BofA's thinking on the market, please post it or pm me.
thanks,
unclewest |
