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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 163.00-0.4%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: The Prophet who wrote (9008)2/2/2000 7:20:00 AM
From: Ausdauer   of 60323
 
Prophet,

The only question is will the price of SD be cheap enough, at some point, for consumers to want to buy "secure" flash memory. For example, if I could buy a card fpor $10 which could hold 10 hours of music, I would be willing to do so and then just buy "downloadable" MP3-like music for $3-5 a record. That would deter me from cheating and trying to go pure MP3 knockoff.

I had a neighbor inquire about the CompactFlash card in my camera this weekend at my son's birthday party. He asked about its cost. I told him I get almost 200 high resolution images on a 64MB card that I paid $140 for. He said that seemed kind of expensive. Then I told him the card never wears out. Then he said, "How are they ever going to make any money on these things?"

I think the cost for CompactFlash is easily justifiable to the consumers who are buying mid-level and upper-end digital cameras. I have made this argument many times. The problem is that this cost basis does not sit as well with consumers buying handheld computers and mp3 players. I think it may be possible to set different target prices for CF and MMC/SD to reflect consumer preferences. As Eli said, the cost of removable storage needs to be some fraction of the cost of a host device. Thus, if mp3 players ring up at $99.99 or less, then a moderate capacity SD Memory card or MMC will need to be well under this level. According to the VCALL that is available at RadioWallStreet a target price of under $20.00 for a very high capacity MMC or SDMC is an attainable target.

As I posted earlier, Infineon representatives state that flash ROM is as cheap as "dirt" indicating that read-only pre-recorded content on flash is just around the corner.

Ausdauer
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