country bob, I think Cramer is entertaining. Maybe because he's the animated version of our own emotional rides with this market.
But if you substitute CMGI for CSCO in the following brief, there's more than a ring of truth in what he has to say...
OT: Artificial Intelligence
By James J. Cramer
2/1/00 10:03 PM ET
The toughest thing about days like today is the pure artificiality of it.
We know, for example, that Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news) wasn't rallying 7 points because someone got all fired up about a big fat router. We know that Cisco, a week before a quarterly report, isn't talking. This is a company that plays by the rules. It's tight as a drum at Cisco right now.
It was pure program buying that drove it.
But here is our favorite stock rallying a lucky 7 and what are we supposed to do? Today at 3:45 p.m. we had the most surreal debate on the trading desk. Some of us wanted to sell stock at the bell with the idea of buying it back lower once the buy program was completed.
Others, namely me, regarded it as heretical. I am willing to bet that either through artificial program buying or through real demand, Cisco will see these levels again -- if not go higher. So what is the point of selling?
We compromised and let a little go.
In markets that are heavily driven by programs because the program buyers and sellers are machines that don't have to be sensitive to price or discipline, it is extremely difficult to keep good stocks on.
The real challenge is to keep your good stocks and sell your losers, or the ones that can't move if everything goes right. You think you can buy these stocks lower after the programs are completed but sometimes you don't get a chance to buy back the good ones.
We know that Cisco is a stock that trades in clumps. Other than that miserable pullback on Oct. 7, 1998, a result of that wrong Cowen downgrade, there hasn't been much of an opportunity to sink your teeth into some cheap Cisco. All of the big clumps have been like today, when the stock looked like it would never look back.
So we were torn today. As I write tonight on the way home from work I worry about many things, but my biggest worry is that Cisco won't retreat and I won't get to replace that stock I sold at the bell.
Guess you can say that's a high-quality problem |
