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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: BigBull who wrote (59550)2/2/2000 10:15:00 AM
From: ChanceIs  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
On API, Iraq, and the OPEC extension...

Remember all the way back to Turkey Day '99 - Iraq stopped shipments for three weeks. By my calculations (using 40 days Gulf to Gulf) that "stoppage" should have reached the API numbers January 11. So I was off by two weeks?? If these "unexplained draws" last one more week than the Iraqi stoppage might be the explanation.

Speaking of Iraq - nice how the US has maneuvered Saddam into the driver's seat. Seriously, what will Clinton/Gore do if he continues to reject inspectors - bomb his oil fields? Saddam can raise the world price of oil $2.00 at will. Does he have leverage in a US election year?? Goodbye arms inspectors.

When will OPEC increase production? They will certainly stone wall until the end of the US winter. Nobody likes to be accused of making people freeze. They can credibly waffle until then. But we are really just beginning to see what the real storage levels are. OPEC should only move when the storage draws are convincing. In August we heard that Cushing was overflowing. The influence on price of jawboning on both sides in the recent weeks suggests that we are somewhat removed from having eliminated the surplus. Six more weeks of speculation. Odds 70 - 30 in favor of OPEC continuing cuts in March.
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