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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 142.68

+4.4%

Nov 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: kemble s. matter who wrote (152852)	2/2/2000 11:11:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (2) of 176387

Kemble - Let's look at some possibilities for the earnings and see what the investment community might think... 1) DELL produces numbers in line with their warning guidance. Management gets good marks for honesty (if a little late) and restores a little credibility in being able to predict the business. Perception of growth going forward is adjusted around 30% rather than the 38% or so that had been modeled. The stock price stays stable through the next earnings report, and when numbers are still in line, the stock price starts to move up to reflect the new growth projections, heading to the 50s by year end. 2) DELL provides a small "upside surprise", reporting .17 or .18 - the street becomes more skeptical about management's ability to provide accurate guidance, stock price becomes more volatile and institutional investors gradually move out... not the best scenario. Still might see 50s at year end but with less confidence. 3) DELL makes earnings as originally projected - .21 or .22 - this would be the worst IMO since it would imply that management was either "gaming" the street or has no idea what their business is doing... 4) numbers are lower than revised guidance, say .13 or .14 - manageable but the stock price would droop to the low 30s as investors wait to see if even the revised 30% growth target can be achieved. I don't see anything in any of these possibilities that would drive stock price up into the 70s - as they used to say about driving directions in New England, "you can't get there from here". I would be interested in a combination of events which would propel stock price up as you suggest but can't see one myself.

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