Re: CDMA v. GSM Forecasts through 2004 - "Wireless2000" market study produced by Micrologic Research and marketed by Forward Concepts. Supplement to Strategis report previously posted for evaluating growth by technology.
REPORT SAYS CDMAONE GROWING RAPIDLY, GSM STILL LEADS
cdg.org
Excerpts:
* shipments of cdmaOne telephones grew 166 percent in 1999 to 42.3 million
* GSM shipments totaled 125.6 million in 1999, up 42 percent from 1998.
* GSM will continue to lead the digital cellular market during at least the next five years.
* 254 million GSM telephones will be sold worldwide in 2004 compared to 180 million cdmaOne telephones and 48 million TDMA phones.
* emerging third-generation (3G) phones in 2004 projected at 10.6 million in Europe, 6.8 million in Japan, and 6.8 million in the Americas.
The report contains over 200 tables, graphs, and figures. Wireless2000 is priced at $2,850. The Executive Summary which costs $2,850 less <g> is here:
mosmicro.com
Excerpts:
* Worldwide Wireless Chip Market (millions)
'99 - $5,128
'00 - $5,480
'01 - $6,680
'02 - $8,950
'03 - $12,690
'04 - $18,720
* Worldwide Cellular Telephone Shipments U.S. Dollars in Millions
--------GSM-----CDMA---TDMA--3G--
'99 - $26,368 - $10,373 - $5,350 - $028
'00 - $31,614 - $13,430 - $6,053 - $152
'01 - $33,855 - $18,580 - $6,543 - $1,499
'02 - $36,567 - $22,820 - $8,514 - $2,237
'03 - $36,973 - $29,193 - $8,771 - $3,641
'04 - $40,418 - $37,205 = $8,063 - $5,336
The study shows analog shipments reducing from $3,178 (99) to $897 (04)
* Data Over Cellular
"Now that digital cellular technology is well established for voice, cellular service providers are turning their attention to providing data-communications services. Japan's cdmaOne network is offering 64-kilobit-per-second packet data communications services, and limited Internet browsing using the Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) began to be offered in several countries in 1999"
* WAP-Capable Cellular Telephones
"We believe that all new digital cellular telephones will include WAP capability by 2003"
'99 - 7%
'00 - 35%
'01 - 75%
'02 - 92%
'03 - 100%
'04 - 100%
* The Global Positioning System - Worldwide Car-Navigation System Sales (millions of units)
'99 - 5.6
'00 - 8.6
'01 - 12.9
'02 - 16.7
'03 - 20.8
'04 - 26.2
Caveat: I wouldn't take these numbers to the bank until they are scrutinized against some of the other reports recently published or soon to be published. I am particularly leery of the 100% WAP enabled statement and related forecasts.
The excellent .pdf file with slides of the Strategis Group Conference Call to Discuss Take-Off of 2.5G/3G which forecast worldwide technology growth are at:
strategisgroup.com
Strategis Group presentation On "Us Wireless Handsets: Marketshare And Trends" is at:
strategisgroup.com
- Eric - |
