I don't really see your argument about the blood-brain barrier. The medicine, of course, is thought to work in the MALT of the gut, and not to cross BB barrier. As I understand it, antigen feeding is supposed decrease the # of myelin reactive T cells in circulation or increase the number of suppresive cytokines (IL4 and 10?), again, in circulation. T cells are activated prior to crossing the blood brain barrier and it is the activation of these cells in circulation that antigen-feeding was supposed to prevent or diminish, no?
Also, while the RA phase I (not II, which we are all eagerly awaiting!) trials were published in the top-of-the-line journal Science, so too were their phase II MS results. And, well.. :-(
My point is that even if their RA results are successful, remember how long the road is to FDA approval--a phase III trial looms ahead. Also consider their burn rate. While they should be able to find investors, I would expect the stock price, after bouncing up, to languish due to dilution and uncertainty over the phase III trial.
Even so, your point about the placebo masking a treatment-group effect is very well taken. While I obviously feel that the failure of the science as it applies to MS lowers expectations with respect to its application to other autoimmune diseases, it is quite possible that their results were anomalous, and that the approach does work. I hope so.
I have sold my remaining puts as I really don't want to be put in the position of hoping that their treatment strategy fails. I also don't relish the thought of having the the stock bump up on me while holding puts!
Thanks for your points. Let me know whether my immunology is goofy--I am no expert! |
