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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 166.81

-4.1%

Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Eric L who wrote (6128)	2/2/2000 9:29:00 PM
From: pheilman_	Read Replies (2) of 13582

Note the change of subject. I pointed out that the cited report had a 9 year table of measured and projected sales for the various cellular standards. In your posting you did not simply copy and paste, you transposed the matrix and deleted the first three columns. Of measured data. For years 96-98. I did not say you mistyped the numbers. Here are the Y-O-Y growth rates from the cited report. GSM CDMA TDMA 1997 75% 451% 328% measured 1998 65% 74% 14% measured 1999 35% 104% 103% measured 2000 20% 29% 13% estimate 2001 7% 38% 8% estimate 2002 8% 23% 30% estimate 2003 1% 28% 3% estimate 2004 9% 27% -8% estimate Again, note the saturation appearance in the GSM growth. I think this reflects the minimal use of GSM in the US and Asia. Then suddenly, after 8 years of slowing growth, in 2004 growth picks up again, why? Now, note the sudden drop in estimated growth for CDMA from 99-2000, why? If the estimate is changed, for just that single year, to 50%, then CDMA sales exceed GSM sales in 2004. So, that strange little 29% has a huge effect on the conclusion of this report. The Strategis Group report predicts that for the US in 2004, 49% will be CDMA and 7% will be GSM. Certainly the US is just a fraction of the cellular market, but a pretty big fraction. Why doesn't NOK buy Q's CDMA asics? Paul

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