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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 166.81

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3:59 PM EST

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To: pheilman_ who wrote (6130)	2/2/2000 10:17:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) of 13582

Paul, << Here are the Y-O-Y growth rates from the cited report >> Thanks for taking the time to spread that. Methinks you type faster and better than me. I think you also do a bit better than me with number crunching so perhaps you could do all of us here a service by applying that talent to a deeper comparison of the Micrologic Research handset sales numbers with the Strategis worldwide subscriber numbers. The Strategis US report could be helpful as a supplement in such an analysis because it takes into account churn and replacement better than other reports I have seen. it does not however include prepaid which is a ballgame in itself but one that is related to churn << minimal use of GSM in the US and Asia >> GSM use in US is small, in Asia is LARGE and growing rapidly. You might want to brush up on this. << Now, note the sudden drop in estimated growth for CDMA from 99-2000, why? >> If you post that question on the Nokia or ERICY threads you will get better input than I can provide. I think I know part of the answer but I'll let you reach our own conclusions. I candidly hope it is not a sensible projection. << So, that strange little 29% has a huge effect on the conclusion of this report >> It could also have an effect on our investment in Q. << the US is just a fraction of the cellular market, but a pretty big fraction >> Its growth is slowing BUT it has the SINGLE largest cellular subscriber base in the world. There is a BIG analog base here in the 800 MHz spectrum and the replacement of that base will be heavy CDMA. GSM here is ALL 1900 MHz. << Why doesn't NOK buy Q's CDMA asics? >> That, Paul, is the $64,000 question. - EriQ -

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