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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Big Bucks who wrote (33978)	2/2/2000 11:42:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Big Bucks, Gottfried and Threaders, Following are the DW Weekly Bull Percentages. BAD NEWS!!! All of the leading indicators and the NYSE and OTC have reversed down. Additionally, the SEMICONDUCTOR Sector which Intc, AMAT, etc. is in has dropped from 90.3% on 1/18/00 to 52.7% today for a 37.6% drop in two weeks. From my past observations of the SEMI Sector drops, AMAt drops normally approximately 1 month later. This supports Big Bucks theory that the stock may run up prior to earnings and or 2X1 split and then fall. If past cycles are any indication then a 50% plus downcycle may be in the offering to around $36 or below. Brian, I no you might not want to hear the above but I am just looking at my past cycle charts. This potential also supports Lester E's previous posts. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site, IBD and SEMI sites. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." PAUL DW # below: Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 12/28/99 1/4/00 1/11/00 1/18/00 1/25/00 2/2/00 10week 43.13 10week 38.09 10week 51.06 10week 52.75 10week 44.85 10week 45.45 LEADING INDICATOR #1 30week 31.46 30week 28.96 30week 34.38 30week 35.59 30week 32.14 30week 30.64 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpaero 42.7 bpaero 46.3 bpaero 46.3 bpaero 40 bpaero 42.2 bpaero 35.9 bpasia 62.7 bpasia 66.7 bpasia 68 bpasia 68.6 bpasia 64.7 bpasia 60.8 bpauto 34.4 bpauto 33.3 bpauto 38.7 bpauto 40.9 bpauto 38.7 bpauto 33.3 bpbank 27.4 bpbank 22.5 bpbank 20 bpbank 22 bpbank 19.6 bpbank 19 bpbiom 64.7 bpbiom 61.4 bpbiom 75.2 bpbiom 75.2 bpbiom 80.2 bpbiom 50 bpbuil 33.3 bpbuil 36 bpbuil 36 bpbuil 35 bpbuil 34.2 bpbuil 30.4 bpbusi 41 bpbusi 41.9 bpbusi 45.2 bpbusi 50 bpbusi 45.6 bpbusi 43.5 bpchem 42.9 bpchem 44.9 bpchem 50 bpchem 48 bpchem 40.8 bpchem 38.8 bpcomp 62 bpcomp 62 bpcomp 59.5 bpcomp 65.5 bpcomp 69.2 bpcomp 53.1 bpdrug 45.2 bpdrug 47 bpdrug 67 bpdrug 69.6 bpdrug 67 bpdrug 59.1 bpelec 52.4 bpelec 51.3 bpelec 50.2 bpelec 59.6 bpelec 64.7 bpelec 51.1 bpeuro 72.7 bpeuro 78.8 bpeuro 70.6 bpeuro 79.8 bpeuro 73.5 bpeuro 62.9 bpeuti 22.1 bpeuti 22.1 bpeuti 24.7 bpeuti 24.7 bpeuti 31.2 bpeuti 32.9 bpfina 40 bpfina 38 bpfina 35.4 bpfina 36.4 bpfina 38.4 bpfina 30.9 bpfood 28.7 bpfood 31.3 bpfood 36.1 bpfood 38.1 bpfood 38.1 bpfood 34.7 bpfore 59.2 bpfore 59.2 bpfore 63.3 bpfore 57.1 bpfore 44.9 bpfore 42.9 bpgame 47.5 bpgame 52.5 bpgame 51.2 bpgame 51.2 bpgame 53.7 bpgame 53.7 bpguti 47.5 bpguti 47.5 bpguti 47.5 bpguti 49.2 bpguti 54.1 bpguti 51.7 bpheal 41.2 bpheal 43.5 bpheal 56.3 bpheal 60 bpheal 61 bpheal 57.8 bphous 38.1 bphous 35.1 bphous 37.3 bphous 39.7 bphous 41.8 bphous 40.9 bpinet 51.94 bpinet 48.14 bpinet 46.33 bpinet 49.19 bpinet 57.51 bpinet 35.33 bpinsu 29.3 bpinsu 29.2 bpinsu 35.4 bpinsu 35.4 bpinsu 28.5 bpinsu 26.4 bplati 61.5 bplati 57.7 bplati 61.5 bplati 71.2 bplati 69.2 bplati 62.7 bpleis 39.3 bpleis 41.2 bpleis 43.4 bpleis 42.5 bpleis 43.6 bpleis 39.8 bpmach 39.6 bpmach 40 bpmach 45.3 bpmach 44.2 bpmach 37.9 bpmach 33.7 bpmedi 66.7 bpmedi 55.2 bpmedi 57.3 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 55.8 bpmedi 40.6 bpmeta 43.2 bpmeta 51.4 bpmeta 49.3 bpmeta 49.3 bpmeta 45.2 bpmeta 45.2 bpnyse 38.6 bpnyse 37.9 bpnyse 40.1 bpnyse 42.6 bpnyse 39.9 bpnyse 35.9 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpoil 37 bpoil 36.2 bpoil 40.1 bpoil 44.9 bpoil 50.4 bpoil 45.9 bpoils 46.3 bpoils 41.5 bpoils 45.1 bpoils 59.8 bpoils 63.4 bpoils 56.3 bpopti 49.54 bpopti 41.68 bpopti 48.46 bpopti 54.26 bpopti 42.16 bpopti 37.95 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpotc 50.6 bpotc 47.7 bpotc 50.2 bpotc 55.8 bpotc 54.4 bpotc 40.2 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpprec 32.6 bpprec 34.9 bpprec 34.9 bpprec 30.2 bpprec 30.2 bpprec 30.2 bpprot 45.7 bpprot 51.4 bpprot 48.6 bpprot 54.3 bpprot 54.3 bpprot 51.4 bpreal 28.8 bpreal 28.8 bpreal 31.5 bpreal 32.1 bpreal 32.1 bpreal 32.1 bprest 25.3 bprest 25.3 bprest 26.6 bprest 34.2 bprest 34.2 bprest 31.6 bpreta 32.8 bpreta 32.1 bpreta 32.7 bpreta 34.2 bpreta 32 bpreta 28.8 bpsavi 21.5 bpsavi 15.4 bpsavi 14.3 bpsavi 15.6 bpsavi 15 bpsavi 16.3 bpsemi 76.3 bpsemi 72 bpsemi 72.8 bpsemi 90.3 bpsemi 78.5 bpsemi 52.7 bpsoft 67.1 bpsoft 64 bpsoft 59.6 bpsoft 65.1 bpsoft 66.7 bpsoft 46.6 bpstee 31 bpstee 38.1 bpstee 42.9 bpstee 41.5 bpstee 39 bpstee 34.1 bptele 61 bptele 54.1 bptele 57.4 bptele 66 bptele 68.5 bptele 48.3 bptext 31.4 bptext 30.1 bptext 30.3 bptext 29.6 bptext 32.5 bptext 31.3 bptran 34.5 bptran 32.2 bptran 36.8 bptran 37.9 bptran 34.9 bptran 29.1 bpwall 36 bpwall 36 bpwall 34 bpwall 46 bpwall 48 bpwall 48 bpwast 25.5 bpwast 29.6 bpwast 33.3 bpwast 37 bpwast 40.7 bpwast 44.4 HiLo 18.4 HiLo 29.98 HiLo 41.07 HiLo 46.34 HiLo 43.38 HiLo 28.94 LEADING INDICATOR #3 NUMMERICAL ORDER BELOW<b/> Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 12/28/99 1/4/00 1/11/00 1/18/00 1/25/00 2/2/00 bpsemi 76.3 bpeuro 78.8 bpbiom 75.2 bpsemi 90.3 bpbiom 80.2 bpeuro 62.9 bpeuro 72.7 bpsemi 72 bpsemi 72.8 bpeuro 79.8 bpsemi 78.5 bplati 62.7 bpsoft 67.1 bpasia 66.7 bpeuro 70.6 bpbiom 75.2 bpeuro 73.5 bpasia 60.8 bpmedi 66.7 bpsoft 64 bpasia 68 bplati 71.2 bplati 69.2 bpdrug 59.1 bpbiom 64.7 bpcomp 62 bpdrug 67 bpdrug 69.6 bpcomp 69.2 bpheal 57.8 bpasia 62.7 bpbiom 61.4 bpfore 63.3 bpasia 68.6 bptele 68.5 bpoils 56.3 bpcomp 62 bpfore 59.2 bplati 61.5 bptele 66 bpdrug 67 bpgame 53.7 bplati 61.5 bplati 57.7 bpsoft 59.6 bpcomp 65.5 bpsoft 66.7 bpcomp 53.1 bptele 61 bpmedi 55.2 bpcomp 59.5 bpsoft 65.1 bpelec 64.7 bpsemi 52.7 bpfore 59.2 bptele 54.1 bptele 57.4 bpmedi 60 bpasia 64.7 bpguti 51.7 bpelec 52.4 bpgame 52.5 bpmedi 57.3 bpheal 60 bpoils 63.4 bpprot 51.4 bpinet 51.94 bpprot 51.4 bpheal 56.3 bpoils 59.8 bpheal 61 bpelec 51.1 bpotc 50.6 bpmeta 51.4 bpgame 51.2 bpelec 59.6 bpinet 57.51 bpbiom 50 bpopti 49.54 bpelec 51.3 10week 51.06 bpfore 57.1 bpmedi 55.8 bptele 48.3 bpguti 47.5 bpinet 48.14 bpotc 50.2 bpotc 55.8 bpotc 54.4 bpwall 48 bpgame 47.5 bpotc 47.7 bpelec 50.2 bpprot 54.3 bpprot 54.3 bpsoft 46.6 bpoils 46.3 bpguti 47.5 bpchem 50 bpopti 54.26 bpguti 54.1 bpoil 45.9 bpprot 45.7 bpdrug 47 bpmeta 49.3 10week 52.75 bpgame 53.7 10week 45.45 LEADING INDICATOR #1 bpdrug 45.2 bpaero 46.3 bpprot 48.6 bpgame 51.2 bpoil 50.4 bpmeta 45.2 bpmeta 43.2 bpchem 44.9 bpopti 48.46 bpbusi 50 bpwall 48 bpwast 44.4 10week 43.13 bpheal 43.5 bpguti 47.5 bpmeta 49.3 bpbusi 45.6 bpbusi 43.5 bpchem 42.9 bpbusi 41.9 bpinet 46.33 bpguti 49.2 bpmeta 45.2 bpfore 42.9 bpaero 42.7 bpopti 41.68 bpaero 46.3 bpinet 49.19 bpfore 44.9 bphous 40.9 bpheal 41.2 bpoils 41.5 bpmach 45.3 bpchem 48 10week 44.85 bpmedi 40.6 bpbusi 41 bpleis 41.2 bpbusi 45.2 HiLo 46.34 bpleis 43.6 bpotc 40.2 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpfina 40 bpmach 40 bpoils 45.1 bpwall 46 HiLo 43.38 bpleis 39.8 bpmach 39.6 bpstee 38.1 bpleis 43.4 bpoil 44.9 bpaero 42.2 bpchem 38.8 bpleis 39.3 10week 38.09 bpstee 42.9 bpmach 44.2 bpopti 42.16 bpopti 37.95 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpnyse 38.6 bpfina 38 HiLo 41.07 bpnyse 42.6 bphous 41.8 bpnyse 35.9 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bphous 38.1 bpnyse 37.9 bpoil 40.1 bpleis 42.5 bpchem 40.8 bpaero 35.9 bpoil 37 bpoil 36.2 bpnyse 40.1 bpstee 41.5 bpwast 40.7 bpinet 35.33 bpwall 36 bpwall 36 bpauto 38.7 bpauto 40.9 bpnyse 39.9 bpfood 34.7 bptran 34.5 bpbuil 36 bphous 37.3 bpaero 40 bpstee 39 bpstee 34.1 bpauto 34.4 bphous 35.1 bptran 36.8 bphous 39.7 bpauto 38.7 bpmach 33.7 bpbuil 33.3 bpprec 34.9 bpfood 36.1 bpfood 38.1 bpfina 38.4 bpauto 33.3 bpreta 32.8 bpauto 33.3 bpbuil 36 bptran 37.9 bpfood 38.1 bpeuti 32.9 bpprec 32.6 bptran 32.2 bpinsu 35.4 bpwast 37 bpmach 37.9 bpreal 32.1 30week 31.46 bpreta 32.1 bpfina 35.4 bpfina 36.4 bptran 34.9 bprest 31.6 bptext 31.4 bpfood 31.3 bpprec 34.9 30week 35.59 bprest 34.2 bptext 31.3 bpstee 31 bptext 30.1 30week 34.38 bpinsu 35.4 bpbuil 34.2 bpfina 30.9 bpinsu 29.3 HiLo 29.98 bpwall 34 bpbuil 35 bptext 32.5 30week 30.64 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpreal 28.8 bpwast 29.6 bpwast 33.3 bpreta 34.2 30week 32.14 bpbuil 30.4 bpfood 28.7 bpinsu 29.2 bpreta 32.7 bprest 34.2 bpreal 32.1 bpprec 30.2 bpbank 27.4 30week 28.96 bpreal 31.5 bpreal 32.1 bpreta 32 bptran 29.1 bpwast 25.5 bpreal 28.8 bptext 30.3 bpprec 30.2 bpeuti 31.2 HiLo 28.94 LEADING INDICATOR #3 bprest 25.3 bprest 25.3 bprest 26.6 bptext 29.6 bpprec 30.2 bpreta 28.8 bpeuti 22.1 bpbank 22.5 bpeuti 24.7 bpeuti 24.7 bpinsu 28.5 bpinsu 26.4 bpsavi 21.5 bpeuti 22.1 bpbank 20 bpbank 22 bpbank 19.6 bpbank 19 HiLo 18.4 bpsavi 15.4 bpsavi 14.3 bpsavi 15.6 bpsavi 15 bpsavi 16.3

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