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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!!

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To: Neocon who wrote (73770)	2/3/2000 1:01:00 AM
From: wonk	Read Replies (1) of 108807

Sigh! There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. 1. In these 8 years, the President's proposed budget increased every year - a compounded annual growth rate of 6.7% (1094/ (1+.067)^7). 2. The President never proposed a balanced budget. 3. The President's smallest proposed deficit was larger the Carter's smallest actual deficit. 4. These analyses invariably ignore the effects of entitlements which amount to approximately 50% of the budget. Neither Reagan nor the Congress were willing to expend the political capital to tackle entitlements. If one re-examines the Reagan budgets eliminating entitlements, Congress spent less than the President requested on non-entitlements. 5. Even considering entitlements, the national debt grew by 2.25 trillion dollars. Since the variance, including entitlements of Congressional overspending was $554 billion shall we then lay approximately the $1.7 trillion of additional national debt at Reagan's feet? 6. So there you have it. On average, Congress spent 2.8% more than Reagan asked for, while the cumulative (yearly compounding rate) was a whopping 24.5% more. If the budget in 1989 had been 24.5% smaller (i.e., 280 billion dollars) there could have been a surplus of about 130 billion dollars instead of a deficit. This is equivalent to a constant compounding increase of 2.8% every year during the 8 budgets above and beyond the previous year's spending.... A gently as possible, your math is flawed. Using the starting point of Reagan's first budget of $695 billion and an end point of the 1989 appropriated funds results in a compounded annual growth rate of 7.4% (1144/(1+.074)^7). 7.4% - 6.7% results in a variance of only 0.7% between the Reagan proposed budgets and the actual Congressional allocation, including entitlements. ww p.s. 0.7% variance between a proposed budget an actual expenditures would probably rank in the upper echelons of Corporate American performance.

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