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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (11643)2/3/2000 5:53:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Brian: Thanks for the article. I still have not seen an analysis of the factors behind Brinker's position. We have had an attempt at high school humor directed against Brinker and now a general warning about market timing but still no direct analysis of the factors behind Brinker's thinking. Money supply? Valuations? Sentiment? Inflation? Rising interest rates? Risk reward analysis? Asset allocation? Never mentioned.

Also never mentioned is the math behind Brinker's advice whereby he captures most of any equity appreciation with a reduction of risk.

I find it fascinating that the writer states he has no confidence in market projections form the likes of Abby Cohen or Brinker but still continues to provide his own:

Re: "Yes, that's my prediction. No crash. But no funds with triple-digit returns either. Instead, look for the over-all market to have returns in the range of 11 percent this year."

I can get a tax equivalent yield of between 9% and 10% in municipal bonds without equity risk currently. And I have a high probability of capital appreciation. Moreover, I can get nearly 6% by sitting in a money market. Someone else can take the risk and take the extra return. They will have earned it. But if it does not work out for them, I will have the money to help provide liquidity to the market. Each person must make their own decisions based on their own circumstances.
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