Paul,
<< Strangely, the GSM subscriber numbers are not readily available >>
To be sure, they are. They are at the GSM Association (formerly GSM Mou) web site, right where the have always been and they are as detailed or probably more detailed than the CDG source you reference:
gsmworld.com
<< Almost all published values refer to EMC, a paid information service >>
There are numerous other sources and several available on the web if you know where to look (although not in detail, for which you pay a tidy sum. EMC is of course the official source retained by the GSM Association to maintain current subscriber numbers and forecast worldwide subscriber growth (all technologies). I'm not sure when this started. I've been crunching subscriber numbers since 94 and that was the case then. A high light of every GSM World Congress is the EMC presentation of these numbers.
<< So, if we want to curve fit and assume that CDMA will have the same shape S-Curve as GSM >>
That may be a spurious assumption. I think it is. Let me say that I would not want to use an S-Curve to make a business decision to design and manufacture a product or staff a sales force and support resource for a segment of the digital mobile wireless industry based on one. The research firms do not use S-Curve's to plot subscriber growth. They start with a sophisticated database and do serious industry research.
<< So, I predict, CDMA subscribers will cross GSM subscribers in 2002 at 425M >>
Well, you have come to a far different conclusion than any major research firm in the world that specializes in this game (EMC, Cahners In-Stat, DataQuest, Ovum, Strategis, Yankee Group, et al). Guess I better add to my already large Q position <g>. The CDMA subscriber base is generally forecasted (depending on the firm) to reach 20% of the cellular subscribers in the world by either 2003 or 2004, with GSM between 50% to 60% of the total subscriber base at that time.
- EriQ - |
