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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Rillinois who wrote (11662)2/3/2000 11:01:00 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
I believe you are overly harsh.

My guess is the gut feel took him out to 40% rather than wait for sentiment to totally go South.

I have heard him say MANY times that the 4 week moving average of bulls/bears/clueless advisors is ONLY a WARNING at the 70% level. I am sure he has other indicators like put/call ratio but not VIX as he has stated as much.

My guess is the call is 40:60 = 2:3 as it means 3 of the 5 major indicators are reading Bear and the other two are sufficiently degraded that he felt an allocation switch was prudent.

I'd also add that the funds he owned in portfolio #1 were loaded with internet stocks and other high flyers and thus contained a very high risk of a high beta correction.

Myself, I have remained at 80:20 where I have been since last summer so I have cash to buy dips in great companies when they sell at reasonable valuations. My public portfolio is up something like 15% since Jan 7th so I think stock selection can make a difference in returns you see. (Anyone remember I was buying BOWG at under $1 on the fall correction? Broke through $5 today. Justa's SFAM pick I got at $13 went through $20 also. Way to go Justa!)

just my $.02 worth..
Kirk out
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