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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (91284)2/3/2000 11:33:00 AM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (2) of 1574761
 
Jim,

Re:"freeze the market"

I am sure you are right to an extent.

AMD however has its head up its ass with the cat and mouse game.

Willy is undoubtedly real.

It may well ship in volumes in Q4 this year.

So i still see some upside from Q1 to Q2.

But i would be cautious for Q3/Q4.

Having said all that Athlons are gonna be dirt cheap to produce in the sockets.

So an Athlon with 128K on chip cache in socket A may well run 1ghz-1.2Ghz in Cu in 2H 2000 and cost around $50 to boot.

AMD should be able to sell 5M or so of those /quarter at a $100-120 ASP IMHO. Couple that with 1-2M mustangs at a $200-300ASP and you still have close to a $1.5bn quarter.

If you recall last year 400Mhz was high end and by end of year it was basically dropped into the gulag.

By Q4 todays high end 800Mhz will likely be in the gulag as well - except for laptops.

I find it difficult to see where the celeron,timna and via will fit in here.

regards,

Kash
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