Raleigh, I wouldn't be suprised if your right, you have a pretty good batting average. I'm not convinced, however, by your arguments.
<<The traffic in ground networks may [be] constrained due to bandwidth considerations, the air has none.>> Bandwidth in the air has constraints just as does ground based systems. The number of satellites that will be allowed to serve a given area will be finite. The number of transponders, frequencies, power allowed, power available, all have natural, technological and regulatory limits.
Instead of your bike v. motorcycle anology consider an airplane v. automobile comparison. There is "unlimited" air yet there are hundreds of thousands of cars per airplane. Airplanes must be confined to tightly controlled corridors, have large capital costs, numerous regulations, and fixing one in the air is problematic at best. Autos have similar regulatory problems but became ubiquitous once the highway infrastructure was in place. Need an upgrade for one auto? No problem. Need an upgrade for an airplane? Find financing, place order, wait two years, no problem.
Want to get to Europe? The airplane wins. Want to get from New York to New Jersey? You could fly, but you won't. I think we're seeing the same data, but have different perspectives. You and I are contemporaries so I know you've seen technological promises that never succeeded in any substantial way such as flywheel energy storage, fusion electrical power, rotary engined autos, fission electrical power, etc. While some of these technologies had limited success, they quickly peaked and then were relegated to niche markets at best. The costs are always higher then predicted, the regulations grew the way a gas expands to fill its container, limits were discovered once the the boundaries were approached.
What's it all mean? I believe FTEL is a great investment, but I think the satellite end of it will be modest. I think this is probably better for FTEL and FNet in the long run because their equipment will be on either end of the copper and fiber lines. I think we can make more money selling four tires for every auto then we can by selling airplanes.
I've just about used up all my words so I'll be quiet for awhile. Best wishes - Sam |
