Jim; As follows; don't hesitate to set me right if my premise is flawed*
Optionsource, the site, takes a contrarian approach in attempting to gauge market direction from the clues of sentiment (they also wield a mean chart). Put/call ratios are among the data mined.
In particular, a high volume of put action on a rising market/index/stock is taken as bullish. Which is why (my interpretation) they kept cheering on the Naz as it rose & so did QQQ put volume. Similarly, if call volume is rising on a rising market/sector/stock, they discreetly warn by pointing it out.
What I was wondering/musing about, was whether it might not count so much on the downside - when there is optimism about something that is so thoroughly beaten down.
But now that I set this down, I'm ready to say eureka, of course! The consensus (roughly, & as evinced by put volume) was the Nazdaq 100 could not continue. It did, & then the call volume shot up, & it turned (excuse oversimplification + hindsight).
So, if the consensus (as evinced by call volume) is that the airline sector is due for a revival, well maybe the time isn't quite yet. Also, I'm only commenting on their comments, not on your post. Your post was over my head, but I thought their comments might be more input for you to mull. I have absolutely no interest in being "right" about the immediate future of the Airline sector - see below.
*ie my premise about how Schaeffer's site views sentiment as an indicator, not my premise about the airline sector! I don't know blank about the airline sector, or about most of the things discussed on this thread.
I stopped by one day because I thought it was about Technical analysis! Groan.
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