Wayne, "but I was somehow under the impression that the view of the thread was that China/Unicom would not go CDMA. I assume my belief was wrong, but I was wondering if anyone had a good feel for how the TDMA vs CDMA debate is likely to play out. QCOM makes it sound like its a done deal and CDMA will own China. A blow to IDC if true."
Wayne. It has ALWAYS been the intent of Unicom to add CDMA to it's portfolio of products. I never read anyone saying anything else. Currently Unicom is 100% GSM. Unicom needs a common air interface to help distinguish it from China Telecom (NYSE:CHI) and attempt to gain market share. Unicom controls about 3% of mainland China's market (with 90% of that 3% in ONE prefecture), China Telecom controls the other 97%.
The three problems facing Unicom in any buildout, be it GSM, TDMA, or CDMA and they are: (a) they don't have the capital to buildout a CDMA structure, (b) they don't have the internal business infrastructure to buildout to other provinces, and (c) GSM remains 100% of Unicom's current revenue base.
Now how can this be a blow to IDC? IDC's technology is already being used in China in the Guangdong province by Unicom (a broadband WLL system). Unicom could as well buildout this system as narrowband CDMA. The fact is they needed approval by the Chinese Govt. for both WLL B-CDMA and CDMA and they got it. The press heard about Unicom getting the narrowband approval - but they didn't hear that Unicom was also requesting broadband WLL approval (with Samsung), and they got that too. China Telecom hasn't given much indication that it is interested in CDMA, other than W-CDMA which it is testing in two provinces, one test with Nokia (in which IDC is involved). China Telecom has already agreed to abide by all the standards set forth by the ITU in relation to paying royalties per the 3g platform.
China, as a nation, is also in discussions with TDMA vendors to buildout to rural China where TDMA could be a less costly alternative mobile technology.
They're already using GSM, which is a TDMA format, and they're also reviewing TDMA as an alternative - in much the same way that Latin America has been viewing it.
However, I do believe that one reason China likes narrowband CDMA and/or WCDMA is the security it provides; it takes time to break down a WCDMA intercept to decipher a call. But, this is just one small benefit. |
