I get a wicked charge out of bond discussions on tv
sure, bonds will divert investor funds away from stocks
what a scream?
I believe it is safe to conclude that we have undergone a schism whereby bonds and stocks have divided the majority of the investor community in three groups
1. bond holders who quiver excitedly at the thought of 7%
(they lost 12% last year on the 30yr TBond)
(some savvy fast movers just made 15-20% on longbonds as the yield dropped from 6.7% to 6.05% --- smooth move)
2. non-tech stock holders who shudder at the idea of volatility
(Lynch likes to tell people that the average stock will have a high/low range equal to 50% of that high, so if you cannot handle that, then DONT INVEST IN STOCKS)
3. tech stock holders who either live or die
(some decline 75%, some drop 60% before eventually rising 100%, some rise 2400% SOUNDS LIKE QCOM, YEAH BABY)
I find bondholders to be an ill breed... call me judgmental, but they are stuck with old truisms that dont apply often... I have never seen a brief era where interest rates are so irrelevant... the "break" occurred in October when Volt warned of a massive headfake prior to Y2K Rally... I called it a monstrous rally upcoming... since then bonds are almost irrelevant, truly unprecedented and amazing
I dont believe bonds CAN compete with stocks... well maybe with dusty dow stocks and old industrials or consumers or drugs... for the next 2-3 years I expect bonds to serve as no more than a "minor headwind" for tech stocks... if you are driving a Ferrari at 150mph, then neither a 15mph headwind nor a 22mph headwind will stop you... may offer some mild turbulence, but no more
in the last year, I am pleased to witness systematic erosion on a shallow but consistent level of old bond myths... just wait until unemployment gets UNDER 4.0%... the anticipated unemploymt rate tomorrow is exactly 4.0% ... we have been supposed to have inflation roaring ever since unemploymt went under 5.0% ... NOT
enough rambling
by the way, Tom Galvin of DLJ expects NazComp to hit 7000 by yearend,
and Dusty Dow to reach not so dusty level of 16,000
I honestly have a first cousin named Tom Galvin, no relation
one tough sumbitch former sailor in Navy
dont eat grits, dont drink booze
but feel real welcome here
havent seen a rat in days
/Jim |
