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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed

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To: NickSE who wrote (6783)2/3/2000 10:10:00 PM
From: NickSE  Read Replies (2) of 42523
 
US Credit Review: Bonds up 2 pts; more talk of bad positions
news.bridge.com

New York--Feb 3--The bellwether bond surged 2 points in a
wild session reminiscent of the 1998 financial market
crisis. Rumors of institutions hit with losses on bad
positions ran rampant and led to fears of systemic risk,
until the New York Federal Reserve calmed the market by
denying talk that an emergency meeting to deal with the
situation had been called.

"We changed from a yield curve squeeze at the long end into
a major credit event in the middle of today when all the
rumors reached their peak," said Patrick Dimick, an
economist at Warburg Dillon Read. "It was definitely
reminiscent of the 1998 fear trade that we had systemic
risk in the financial system."


The rumors ran from a general unwinding of bad positions to
talk that specific parties had recorded million-dollar
losses on trades involving short positions in bonds, and
included institutions ranging from dealer desks to hedge
funds to money managers.

Players tied the bad positions to the recent unexpectedly
strong performance of the bond versus the rest of the yield
curve. Further, players said those participants who had
bought off-the-run bonds versus selling the bellwether bond
in anticipation of significant Treasury buyback were
disappointed the Treasury suggested Wednesday its initial
buybacks would be modest in size.

"The thing you shorted is rallying like crazy because
you've just (essentially) been told that long bonds are
going away and Treasury is not going to be buying as soon
or as intensely as you had been betting; that's where most
of the speculators are suffering pain," Dimick said. "A lot
of money is being lost."


Market participants have seized on a comment made Wednesday
by Treasury Undersecretary Gary Gensler that the 10-year
note could become the benchmark US security.

Treasury "really, really put the long end on notice there
are not going to be many more bonds," a coupon trader
said. "That's caused a disruption in capital." But "when
the market moves like this, it's a function of speculators
on the wrong side of the trade."


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