Brian,
Qwest, Williams and Enron are particularly focused on this ultra long haul technology, but it is by no means a unanimous opinion amongst carriers that this technology is the right choice. First, only a small percentage of fiber runs in any terrestrial network are longer than 1000 miles. Second, soliton technology requires very tight tolerances on lasers, gratings etc.. This adds cost to the nodes, with the advantage that there are fewer of them - but only on truly long haul runs. Third, many feel that soliton technology will prove less reliable - I have no way of knowing, since no one is using this technology in production today.
Paul Silverstein is smoking something if he really believes that NT is 12-18 months ahead on WDM and O-CX. Wavestar400G is a modest leapfrog over what NT is shipping today - 40channels of 10G vs. 16 -has been installed at T and Telefonica in limited quantities, and is supposedly already at full volume manufacture. Both LU and NT are promising 160 channel systems by year end - NT probably wins the race, but not by more than a quarter. NTT and Global Crossing are first in line for LU's 160 channel system. As for O-CX, the LamdaRouter is the only all optical product announced by any company. NT's promised Optera cross connect will by opto-electronic with all optical a future for 2001.
A lot of American analysts are obsessed with Qwest, Williams, and Level3. If those are the only carriers you talk to, you could easily come away with Mr. Silverstein's impression. Lucent's biggest DWDM wins are AT&T, Global Crossing, British Telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica (Spain and Latin America), Telecom Italia, KPN, NTT and China. As you can see, many of LU's best customers are: A. outside the US B. SDH rather than SONET C. Extremely unlikely to buy from Corvis, and D. Companies US analysts never talk to.
Reports of the death of LU's optical equipment business are premature. |
