As VM is quickly moving to Unified Messaging, and the push is for open VM standards, the the upstarts will be able to sell into open VM server market. The problem is that too many in VM are still thinking in terms of a stand-alone VM product. A good analogy of future VM is the NW server market. VM servers will be mostly a SW product, but they will have to adhere to open standards for message exchange. Built on NT they will have scalability (Wolfpack), and UM (exchange).
Octel is the king of proprietary platforms, and VPIM is a serious threat to their core business. Octel has announced a Sierra "vpim" solution, but it is just a VPIM to AMIS converter. It is kludgy, and voice quality stinks (analog transmission). Also, it is on a server (every new Sierra feature is one more server to connect to the box) where they will likely try to regulate VPIM or charge premium price for it. I do not believe the market will accept this. Bottomline is when Octel sells VPIM for Sierra, they lose the lock on the fortune 100. Any company that has a network of Sierras will be able to replace nodes with any VPIM compliant vendor. Maybe they keep Sierra for headquarters, and use AVT or AVCV for field offices. Either way Octel will experience market share erosion.
Another problem for Octel is that Sierra is their bread and butter. It is 1980's proprietary technology. Look at their want-ads. It would appear that they are having a hard time finding people interested in working on the technical equivalent of Dos 3.0. Especially with all of the "hot technology" companies in proximity to Octel (Cisco, 3Com, etc). With perpetual delays in the Sierra upgrade, it would also appear that they are having a tough time squeezing anymore life out of this dead platform. Octel will have an increasingly difficult time selling Sierra systems.
We have talked about IMA. All I know about IMA is that it is years late, and Octel does not talk about it much anymore (please if anybody has any info, let us know). Octel had better have been looking very forward when they archetected IMA, or it is already obsolete. My guess is that they are building a new proprietary platform (although I hope that they used off-the-shelf OS). Like Apple, old busines habits are hard to break. Since Octel has not had any substantial leadership changes, I would expect that they are still in the old VM business model. The days of stand-alone prorietary VM platforms are fading fast. Any VM provider who does not move quick to adapt open standards will die fast. This includes Octel who, like Apple, will change or die. Also, even if IMA delivers, from what I understand it is a "fork lift" upgrade from Sierra. Any Octel customer who wants to move to IMA must toss the Sierra and everything on it. I know the VM business well enough to know that customers don't like this approach to upgrades.
I guess I am an Octel bear. No matter how I slice it, I come to the same conclusion. This company is in trouble. Short-term, who knows, maybe they will finally deliver the Sierra upgrade. Long-term, they had better get some new leadership with fresh ideas! |
