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Biotech / Medical : Gliatech (GLIA)

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To: Joe Wesley who wrote (1293)	2/4/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (1) of 2001

Wait till the fourth report; it's bound to come at the rate he's going. Maybe he'll start talking like Greenspan; one one hand,...., on the other hand,...., on the other hand,... Then we'll know something is up! The valuation being put on this company is ridiculously low. With a bit of luck, this will be a good quarter too since they're filling a pre-existing but empty pipeline. I'd expect a spike in the sales figures as a result. What needs to be established is the frequency of cases where ADCON-L likely prevents scarring with ensuing reoperation or disability. Then contrast that to the frequency of cases where ADCON may have an adverse effect due to dural nicks and try to estimate the number of cases that're really caused by ADCON and not by inept surgeons. If the former number is orders of magnitudes higher than the latter, this is a no-brainer. Insurance companies are likely to reimburse if they can see the effect on the bottom line. They have actuaries who measure these things rather well (I wish a few analysts had an actuarial background!). And they simply want to keep costs down. But if ADCON is commonly available and known to reduce the need for reoperation and the risk of disability, then they're likely to pay because they don't like lawsuits. Doctor's and hospitals don't like them either; they're bad for business in general and they also have an immediate effect on their insurance premiums. People with disabilities make good witnesses in court. Just watch and see what happens if a formulation of ADCON is approved for gynecological surgeries. A young female who ended up with internal scarring because a cheap insurance company wouldn't pay for one little tube should make an excellent witness in court. If played right, the facts of the case won't matter a whole lot. Normal human instincts will take over. Thanks, Torben

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