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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed
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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (7045)2/4/2000 5:11:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) of 42523
 
wave three down...the NAZ is clouding the bigger-picture view, but based on the SPX, a valid interpretation would be that wave one down was the move starting on 01/03, wave 2 the corrective move back to the highs, wave 1 of 3 last week's swoon, 2 of three this week's retrace, and 3 of 3 is to follow next week. however, the alterate count would call for the whole move from 03/01 to Friday last week being an a-b-c corrective structure, in which case a new leg up has begun this week.
however, many other technical indicators seem to say that this CANNOT be the beginning of a new leg up. (hope i won't have to eat them words<ggg>). most notably the total lack of fear during the corrective structure's wild swings and the utter complacency that seems to reign...you just don't get major new up-legs with a sentiment backdrop like that.
apart from this i see a liquidity crunch developing due to the bond and gold market dislocations (which once again seem to worry nobody). note also that no other index confirms the NAZ high....

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