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To: Sam Citron who wrote (113)	4/27/1997 10:11:00 AM
From: Toby	of 297

No such thing as Moore's law in photonics where device sizes are defined and limited by the wavelength of light they produce or detect. Perhaps this is another reason why it will always be a component business. They only hope to add value is to intergrate lasers and detectors with Si circuitry, but then we are back to Si. All you can really hope for in optoelectronics is for cleverer devices in the future with improved performance, but not using less real estate on the wafer. GaAs ICs are being developed for special applications and could conceivably follow Moore's law for a while. In the end, however, 0.1 um Si and GaAs devices are predicted to have comparable performance so GaAs shrinkage is probably a dead end road eventually. re: scarcity of GaAs. The wafer is a near negligible cost component of laser manufacture today and the world won't run out of GaAs ever. It is just informative to consider things macroscopically from the point of view of GaAs's scarcity however. It was only 15 years ago when science was convinced that GaAs could replace Si as we knew it and Cray switched to GaAs for his supercomputer project. Simple facts can sometimes let you recognize and avoid a lot of hype.

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