Folly of past generations ignored
As anyone who has children knows, the folly of past generations is rarely heeded by the younger set. My take on it is this. It is a giant Ponzi scheme to some extent, but we happen to be at the top of the chain-letter scheme.
New investors actually have an advantage. Older investors with more experience derived that experience during a time when the number of investors was relatively stable. One prime driver of the market today is the rapid increase in new investors with direct control over their investments. These people don't for the most part know or care what a P/E ratio is, or how to value a company. The balloon continues to expand because more air is being pumped in. So the rules painstakingly learned and applied during the period where the number of investors was stable and buying decisions controlled by brokers, no longer applies. We may NEVER return to this period. At least not for a fairly long time.
I don't see this ending any time soon, with globalization of trading and e-brokerages opening up the world over, the number of investors should continue to grow. When and if this stabilizes, I will be selling out (hopefully just before :-) ).
All of this money is then being applied by good companies to grow, so the initial vaporware investments will solidify over time.
Regarding April, it will be a dangerous time. I expect a huge tax selloff in the US, as people realize how much they have to pay to Uncle Sam. For the moment, though, hopefully we are safe.
Jonas |
