Dennis,
Appreicate the analysis, and yes you speak a very true sentiment when you espouse the contrarian mantra of "When a stock is flying and everyone is euphoric and giddy one should consider taking some profits. Conversely when the stock is crashing (and the fundamentals are there), and when the tears are flowing down your face and when you are just about to give up on a stock; reach back and take money from your wallet and buy!"
I used to believe the long-term hold strategy was best, and I still think there is much merit in it, but I cannot ignore the fact that that philosophy was developed in market conditions that exhibited much less volatility. The increased fluctuations do two things, provide opportunity for increased profits by trading on the swings, and increase potential for losing profits by not trading on the swings.
Much like free agency in sports has ruined the concept of "team dynasty", so has recent market volatility and trading ruined the concept of "long-term investing". It is a shame ... unfortunately, it is also a reality. Doing the T/A is going to become fundamentally more important to the investor that wishes to maximize his profits while minimizing his risk. I encourage all THQI investors to do their T/A, whatever level they may master will assist more than doing none at all.
Just my thoughts, thanks again for your, and for confirmation I plotted all your indicators on my own and can easily see your analysis being correct. It's just a matter of time, which is always the real unknown.
Regards, JB |
