Net Perceptions, Inc. (NETP) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Net Perceptions, Inc. (NETP)

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To: rupert1 who wrote (2384)	2/5/2000 1:20:00 PM
From: Sofa Kingdom	Read Replies (2) of 2908

Victor, Sweet response. A lot of what we're working with here is small sampling. Year upon year is better and better when you get more years. We don't have enough years to create a reliable prediction with that alone. I can't fault your pencil test beyond that. A pure financial analysis is always difficult with new companies. A combination of good engineering and good management makes for a profitable company, right? Any bads in the picture can sour the situation quickly. Reading financials is empirical because of reporting standards (and the hope that the companies follow them). I try to do a read of both. The read on engineering and mgmt. ends up much less empirical though. Here's some seems-to-me analysis to go with your financial approach: Will NETP accelerate at your predicted pace? I can't say no, but I'm mindful of what's being sold. NETP software is pretty heady stuff. Powerful tool in the right hands. I did freelance statistical work in college. Not many understood how to do the stats and many less knew how to apply them. Will that axiom apply here? My initial reaction is, yes. What does that mean for NETP? If the partner (purchaser) companies have difficulty applying or interpreting what NETP offers it could create a flat spot in sales or a slower growth rate than you predict. NETP could have engineered around this type of problem (or still can). If so, the 'me too' companies that are rushing to the internet will be able to use NETP software as part of their buy-in with tangible results. Then your prediction is low. NETP is still flush with newness and potential. That's what we're buying now. When the customers of NETP come back for more, that's when things will get good. I wish I could predict this return. Any other possibilities? What if big companies are buying once from NETP because they are afraid not to? IBM sold and banked on this type of fear for years (the old saw, no one ever got fired for buying IBM). I don't under estimate the power of a good sales force. After initial purchase the companies can't make hay with the software. They use the gun like a club and wonder what's the use. With this NETP goes from missle to dud. NETP is getting the big companies to look. I'm waiting to hear realistic testimonials. If I wait for years and years for customers to vote with dollars the stock could be out of my reach. The missle left the pad as it were. The right indicator would be words from customers that say that NETP is rocket fuel. I don't have a huge postion right now. I'm long on NETP because I think thats where the gold will be. Its the exciting time before the facts are in. Risk is going down with each passing day and each new customer added to the list. A few more quarters of growth on growth will be one good indicator that we are riding the rocket. I'm looking for positive ink from users too. Ether way I'm on for the ride. At least until I know that its flash-in-the pan time. Thanks for responding so positively to my jibe. I didn't really want to get into a slam fest. Nobody gets rich on that (except maybe the WWF). -Sofa Kingdom

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