Voop,
Re: QCOM - CDMA v. TDMA/GSM - NOT Europe v. US - Some Thoughts (Mine)
<< I thought the Vodaphone deal with Airtouch and BAM would provide the beachhead into Europe for CDMA >>
So did I and thats why I was bitterly disappointed when they committed heavily to GPRS for Europe and Asia. They were the best shot we had. I still think their size and clout will force vendors to bring dual mode GSM/CDMA handsets to market reasonably quickly with trimode GSM/GPRS/CDMA handsets to follow. Maybe HDR fits in their equation?
<< GSM buildout in Europe has them ramping up in GSM-centric EDGE and GPRS direction >>
We keep thinking US v. Europe. I think the paradigm has changed. Maybe we should examine this as objectively as possible before drawing any conclusions. Bear with me while I think out loud. feel free to comment back.
First:
* There are 2 "American" wireless 2G technologies, cdmaOne and TDMA 136
* While TDMA 136 is generally associated with 'T', both BellSouth & SBC also deploy TDMA 136 (they each also operate GSM networks) in the US and abroad
* The "Holy Wars" were not about US v. Europe so much as they were about CDMA v. TDMA v. GSM, although there was a healthy amount of NO GSM, it wasn't invented here, and few of the major US cellular carriers (exceptions being BellSouth and PacBell) elected to make it a technology choice.
Second, Lets look at some 1999 and early 2000 events:
* In January the UWCC formalized the alliance they had announced 3 months earlier with the GSM Association. UWCC joins the UTMS Forum.
* GSM 3GIG disband and 3GPP is formed with both UWCC and GSM Association as members.
* UWCC and GSM Association start discussing and standardizing interoperability of 2G GSM & TDMA 136 networks and evolving them into 2.5G networks with higher data rates.
* In the US GSM completes a national footprint by successful bidding in the reauction of spectrum.
* VoiceStream, Omnipoint, and Aerial merge to form the basis of a major US GSM network with big backing from Huchinson Whampoa.
* 'T' commits to overhauling its entire network with EDGE, bypassing GPRS altogether.
* CDG asks to join 3GPP and is rejected. They form 3GPP2. The 2 groups coordinate harmonization efforts through an Ad Hoc Group.
* 3gpp finalizes Release 99 specifications of UTMS and submits to ITU while outlining Release 2000.
* All major European carriers including VOD order GPRS infrastructure.
* Omnipoint take over Sprint Spectrum's GSM network in DC filling another GSM hole.
* 3GPP2 transfers specifications development work for a 'UIM' (smart card SIM necessary to authenticate to a GSM network) to ETSI SMG9.
* CDG invited to join an International Roaming forum established and expanded by the GSM Association.
* Omnipoint takes delivery of GPRS infrastructure.
* PacBell orders GPRS infrastructure.
Some results:
* A US/European coalition has formed with almost 400 worldwide subscribers, 400 network operators and coverage on every continent and in almost every country therein). This is 8 times the subscriber base of cdmaOne and 5 times the network operators.
* The combined GSM / UWCC alliance creates tremendous economies of scale for the 10 or so infrastructure providers, chip manufacturers, and handset manufacturers, for providing 2.5G GSM/TDMA solutions.
* GPRS (and EDGE) evolving quicker than expected with new chips, multimode base stations, and handsets on there way (early 2001).
* European operators rethinking 3G implementation timeframes because 2.5G will offer more, quicker than they expected, and there are all sorts of spectrum, licensing, and regulatory issues to wade through at the same time a business case for 3G is being developed..
* The 3GPP focus is on GSM/TDMA interoperability backward to 2G and forward to 2.5G and 3G. This is more complex than interoperability of cdma networks which are newer, and fewer.
* The 3GPP is not about to concern itself with backward compatability with cdmaOne networks.
* 3GPP2 has significant interoperability issues to work through to harmonize with UMTS before they get to a final 3G specification.
A the UWC states:
"The efforts to provide wireless communications services anywhere, at anytime, establishes the importance of interoperability between GSM (Global Systems for Mobile Communications) and TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access) standards as the momentum grows towards third generation services."
Conclusions:
* I haven't arrived at any new ones yet.
* I never counted on GSM land penetration (i indulged in some early on wishful thinking about 'T' and VOD, but neither did I count on the significance of the alliance of GSM with the UWCC.
* The real battleground remains in Asia and Latin America where significant growth will occur.
* There are no "inevitable" technology outcomes.
* Q is the CDMA Gorilla
* Q will be the 3G Gorilla
* No other Gorillas or Kings in sight. Some pretty good Princes.
* Q is the best pure wireless play going (but not the only wireless play.
Just thinking out loud and JMO.
<< HDR >>
I'm hopeful. Cha2 following closely for us along with 1X & 3X . He is a relentless sleuth and gets to the truth through the hype.
<< is GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA really the vapourware (had to do it) that CDMAphiles think it is? >>
Shhh! Is Maurice listening? <g> Seems to becoming less so. When you get the Big 5 committed to making it work, its gonna work. Just like cdmaOne worked. Right out of the chute (as soon as terminals are perfected). Were GPRS, EDGE and WCDMA anymore vapourware than 1X, 3X, cdma2000?
<< how do you think intercontinental migration paths will play out and will Q patents hold for WCDMA or UTRA-UMTS? >>
I remain as confident as ever that this will play out positively for Q and us Q investors. I'm certainly not a patent guy but I think Q cdma IPR is rock solid. I sure do wish Gregg Powell were still posting on SI so he could comment on this.
I might add that I thought the last quarter earnings report looked darned good considering the transition of business model. I suspect next quarter will look good. I'm glad Dr. J got the warning out about the soft quarter for handsets. Sure beats an earning surprise.
I was disappointed about last week with no announcements out of Cannes and Perry's no show. Still don't understand it. Poor form. Theres a big show (Wireless 2000) coming up February 28 - March 1 in New Orleans so I'm hoping for good news out of there that just might not have been quite ready last week.
I went on kind of long again, but I'll be off thread for a week starting tomorrow due to business travel so all you Q people hang in there for me. Have a great week.
- EriQ - |
