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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Process Boy who wrote (91780)2/6/2000 5:10:00 AM
From: Goutam  Read Replies (3) of 1577029
 
PB,

Re: Intel chip shortage helps AMD

Thanks for posting it.

The shortage is making it hard to sell motherboards that require Pentium IIIs, said John Howland, owner of Specialty Tech, Lake Forest, Calif. However, the lack of Intel chips has pushed up sales of AMD's Athlon processor, which is in good supply, he said.

The shortage of Intel CPUs couldn't have come at any better time - it will accelerate the Athlon infrastructure's rate of growth immensely. It will also allow AMD to utilize the excess capacity they have at Fab25 due to their close to 100% transition to 180nm production.

"We are exceeding our planned outputs; we're ahead of our conversion rates in the new process technology. The market was forecast to grow at 15 percent. It grew over 20 percent," said Pat Gelsinger, vice president and general manager of Intel's Desktop Products Group.

Look at Pat Gelsinger's statement - it was worded very carefully. From this there is no clear indication that Intel planned it's output to meet the forecasted 15 percent growth in the CPU market. Based on this statement, one can assume that AMD will capture about 8 to 10 percent from the >20 percent growth of the market. This would translate into an additional 2.5M to 3M AMD CPU's from Q4'99. At $90 ASP(assuming higher ASP from Q4'99), this would give about $225M revenues from the additional CPU sales! Add another $75 additional revenues from other business segments and you are looking at close to $300M more from the previous quarter or about $1 EPS from the increased sales alone!

Goutama
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