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Strategies & Market Trends : Player's Club Speculative Futures

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To: John Pitera who wrote (151)	2/6/2000 11:58:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) of 185

John, The recent volatility in the bond markets, run up in Gold and the breakout of the CRB Index certainly appears to me an anticipation of change. But I do not believe they are interconnected. The bonds are a separate issue and probably the miss-management of Larry Summers in announcing a change in the structure of national debt without forward consultation with the large bond traders. However it may lead to something larger and indicate a weakness in the global monetary systems similar to LTCM. Silver, Platinum and Palladium seem to be responding to forward views that pressures of supply and demand will eventually add to prices and changing views of world wide commodity demands. Jimmy Rodgers has been speaking about this for years and has been only partially correct. But when big players like Soros start buying silver mines and oil fields one can't help but notice. Rodgers positions on world demand and growth has always made a great deal of sense to me.... What has made the positions of Soros and Rodgers look wrong, has been the strong trend towards deflation and recession throughout most of the world. The big question remains whether the worlds smaller economies will begin to grow faster then is indicated right now. Look at the difference between the Canada and Australia dollars and the strength/weakness of Asia and South America. Further more, if the technology efficiencies inherent in our expansion are carried outward to others, the result will hold back demand on some commodities. But, it sure looks like a base for the CRB and a gradual increase in world demand. Lets hope the currency pressures and economic conditions allow for the broadening of this economic cycle to other parts of the world. Even with the price of oil many of these commodity based economies are not yet reflecting a surge in economic demands. Lets hope the bond problems don't mushroom into another round of currency complications that result in a new series of deflationary pressures that end in recession. BTW, Hitt has some interesting comments this week. But I do not agree with some of his speculation. Chip

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