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Strategies & Market Trends : TIMING INDEX MUTUAL FUNDS

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To: edward miller who wrote (40)2/6/2000 12:04:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (1) of 428
 
You make a good point in that we are attempting to fight the strongest index but by staying with teh NDX as much as possible, we are playing the most volatile index.

The SPX swings in the 3-5% area while the NDX makes swings in the 10% range easily. If we can nail this index, the 1.8X ratio means large gains ( larger losses if we are wrong <ggg>)

Since we have half our powder dry still, the downside risk still is not that large since we are also playing with some of the house's money after a few wins. At teh bottom of the tracking sheet, you can see that had we bought long and held, we would be flat or negative anyway. The upside seems to be somewhat limited and after teh strong rally last week, the NDX is due for a pullback if on nothing more than a fib retrace thus the risk and hope for the larger swings.

Good Luck,

Lee
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