Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: hmaly who wrote (91789)	2/6/2000 12:51:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) of 1576880

Re: But did OPEC regain market share once oil prices dropped in 1980... Interesting metaphor, but I'm not sure that Intel/AMD/VIA CPUs are the near perfect substitutes that crude oil can be. And light Arabian crude continues to carry a hefty premium due to its low sulphur content, since there continue to be some refineries that can't handle anything else - even barrels of oil from different regions aren't perfect substitutes. Nonetheless, your point that it's going to be a lot easier to maintain a solid presence in all ranges of the market than it will be to establish one is difficult to refute. The best evidence being the present slow penetration of Athlon into the high end despite its blatantly superior price/performance and far better present availability. Regards, Dan PS - I haven't annoyed the list recently with a re-post of my January 3 forecast - so here it is again :-) Message 12446666 Here's a possible scenario for AMD in Y2K: Millions of units: T Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 K7 2 4 6 8 K6 5 4 2 0 K7 ASP $150 K6 ASP $60 Costs: .9B 1.0B 1.1B 1.2B Flash Sales $1.5B Com and Misc $0.5B Earnings: $1.4B EPS for Y2K: $9.30 Stock price: $280

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