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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Dan3 who wrote (91801)2/6/2000 1:16:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (2) of 1576648
 
Dan,

Re:"forecasts"

I suspect your average ASP model for Athlon is flawed.

$150 average does not seem credible to me.

I see $100 average ASP as credible in Q4.

And we may see 800Mhz selects selling for $60-70 at low end.
The 1Ghz sweet spot will probably run $100 or so.
High end 1.2-1.4Ghz units may bring $150/unit.

And mustangs will average $250 or so - but i only expect them to sell maybe 1M/Qtr of these.

My numbers are wholesale numbers.

Resale numbers in pricewatch will likely be 30-50% higher in unit 1 volumes.

Having said that 8M units with $100 ASP = $800M.
Flash should be $450M
Misc of $150M.

And profits should exceed $200Mn in Q4 and perhaps $500M for whole year.

AMD should do over $5bn in y2K.

And we should have a stock price north of $100 if AMD executes well.

Regards,

Kash
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