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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: buck who wrote (17321)2/6/2000 1:43:00 PM
From: buck  Read Replies (5) of 54805
 
Buck's FC - Part B

Finally, to the router side of it. I've broken CRDS out, because I believe that it has the most potential to be a gorilla, or at least a mini-gorilla in a mini-tornado. Hence, I've put more time, thought and research into it. I hope that's apparent.

CRDS has a proprietary open architecture for FC routing (assuming I understand POA correctly). The current product set (in it's third generation) connects a SAN to SCSI devices, typically tape drives, but not limited to them. They also connect SCSI hosts to SANs. These hosts are either a) too old to have FC HBAs available, or b) the customer does not want to install FC HBAs in them (costly downtime, expensive OS upgrades, etc.). This host connection is a CRDS exclusive today. CRDS has demoed the server-free backup capability mentioned in Part I at Comdex and N+I, for the last two years.

CRDS also has announced (and demoed at Comdex99) a router that moves FC data across an ATM WAN or LAN link. This allows the SAN to be extended beyond the 10KM limit of pure FC. Initial applications will probably remote electronic vaulting for disaster recovery and data mirroring for remote-site data sharing.

CRDS is also involved in the InfiniBand game. Intel invested in them for IB routers, to attach IB-enabled servers to external non-IB devices and networks. The proof-of-concept router was demoed at the Intel Developers Forum in August of 99.
These things -- FC<>SCSI, FC<>ATM, IB<>who_knows, and server-free backup -- represent to me a strong proprietary open architecture.

CRDS had been an OEM-only mfr. until 99. They have announced OEM agreements with ADIC, ATL, Bull, CPQ, DELL, Exabyte, Fujitsu/Siemens, HP, Inrange, McDATA, and STK. They have since opened up channel sales agreements with a number of VARs and distributors. CRDS has also announced partnerships with software cos. Legato, Tivoli, Veritas, and Computer Associates. These ISVs will provide enabling applications that take advantage of server-free backup, as well as other data movement applications. They will also provide management capabilities for the SAN that do not exist today. These partnerships provide the beginnings of a strong value chain.

CRDS' barriers to entry seem to be low-ish to medium. SCSI is a standard, FC is a standard, ATM is a standard, and IB is a standard. However, the internal software is what seems key in this space. Server-free backup is done with this internal software. If you follow the Cisco model of routers, other applications can be added here, such as access control lists. SAN-specific apps could include data mirroring and snapshot copies of databases. Their follow-on products, ATM and IB, are sure to include some elements of these, as well.

My question is how do we value this firmware, and it's capabilities? I'm still learning how to do that.

Additionally, CRDS has a large list of interoperable configurations that they have made public. They don't guarantee these configurations, but they do state that they have verified interoperability with a huge amount of software and other SAN components. This amount of interoperability testing and verification seems to be BTE, but I'm not sure how it might be valued.

I believe that there are medium switching costs for end-user customers, when they get them. Since the value chain(?) is so long -- application, platform, HBA, fabric, router, tape library/RAID device -- I think it will be "not simple" to change from one router to another, because of the application support. CRDS' advantage here is being the firstest with the mostest. How do you value the importance of one router over another if you are someone like a Legato or or Tivoli or Veritas or CA?

CRDS has three competitors at this time, none of whom are publicly traded:

ATTO Technologies: produce a storage router; have a strong channel; well-positioned in the Apple market. They have one announced tier-three OEM, MicroNet.
attotech.com

Chapparal Technologies: an Adaptec spin-off; builds FC RAID controllers that they have adapted to storage routing. They have one announced tier-two OEM, Qualstar.
chaparraltech.com

Pathlight: newer company; directly competing with CRDS, as they have no other products except storage routers. They have one tier-one OEM (IBM!!!), and two tier-three OEMs (Glyph, Aviv), both of which are niche-market (bowling alley?) suppliers.
pathlight.com

Bottom Line

Crossroads can be a gorilla inside the FC tornado, according to my notes:
- They have a POA in their multi-protocol routing software.
- They have created new markets, in FC<>SCSI, FC<>ATM, and server-free data movement.
- They have an extensive value chain in their OEMs and application software partners. It seems to be strengthened by their interoperability testing.
- They have medium barriers to entry, in that the software in their box is relatively complex, and I/O engineers aren't growing on trees (they all want to do B2B Java, instead of dull, old I/O<g>) Again, interoperability testing COULD be a BTE.
- They have a product that is "worth more" because of their extensive interoperability testing, and configuration verification, and their announced partnerships.
- Switching costs are an unknown today, and the biggest one that would preclude gorilla-dom. Will the application providers (Tivoli, et al) get to market fast enough to make CRDS a de-facto standard with whatever CRDS enables? Will that "standard" survive assaults from others? Will others have de-facto standards that supersede CRDS' standards?
- They are first-movers (not a GG criteria, I know, but one I respect).
They can be found at crossroads.com Skip the intro unless you just love Flash animation and the sounds of a throbbing internal combustion engine.

Important Note: Absolutely none of this takes into account last week's announcement of their acquisition of Polaris Communications, a mainframe-focused company. Part of me says why bother, another part says "ENTERPRISE!" I dunno...must digest first.

So, there you have it. Shoot if full of holes. I know the financial side is missing, and I need to know what is important, particularly for these little bitty newly public cos. FWIW, I'm re-reading a LOT of TRFM. Tell me what else I'm missing, and I'll go get it. The lovely Mrs. Buck is out house-hunting, I've got both beer and cigarettes, and the NHL All-Star game is on later, so I've got the makings of a great Sunday afternoon (too bad it's not baseball season yet.)

buck, who feels like one of those ice skaters waiting for the judges to post their scores

PS Dang, this seems long!
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