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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Scumbria who wrote (91828)2/6/2000 3:20:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (1) of 1577174
 
Scumbria,

<If it is being done by the Nexgen team, it will probably be junk.>

I heard somewhere that Fred Weber is a pretty sharp cookie. I am not sure but he may actually be one more of the DEC boys.

<- Do you see a reason to support higher MHz than Athlon can do for 2000?

Willamette.>

I think Wilamette is being overestimated just like Athlon was overestimated.

It will take a while for Wilamette to ramp on the desktop side. It will take longer for Foster to ramp up on the server side. It will be even longer for Wilamette derivatives to ramp on the laptop side.

Assuming Intel outexecutes AMD with Wilamette, this whole story could playoff something like this:

2000:

Q1: We are already here and AMD will do north of $1 EPS this Q so I guess no one is worrying about this quarter.

Q2: Athlon penetraion improves. Some business SKUs.

Q3: Athlon comes to laptops and servers. Athlon in a a lot of business SKUs.

Q4: Wilamette ships some units at the high-end. AMD starts kicking PIII butt in mobile space. Server penetration increases.

2001:

Q1: Wilamette kicking Athlon butt high-end. Athlon reduced to a *highly-profitable* midrange consumer/business space as Windows 2000 and Windows Millenium ramp. Athlon portables continue to kcik PIII butt.

Q2: Wilamette continues to kick Athlon butt. Athlon servers are everywhere. Foster starts getting closer to reality.

Q3: The story begins all over with Sledgehammer and Wilamette and the players switching roles.

In summary what I see is a leap frog game that does musical chairs around segmentation boundaries. Based on this it is hard for me see either party losing. Only thing is that AMD will substantially outperform Intel because it will gain market share in areas it has no presence to date (corporate systems, high-end laptops, servers)

I see AMD being very well positioned going into 2001. The issue that AMD faces is one of execution.

Chuck
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