Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 166.05

+0.6%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: jmanvegas who wrote (66114)	2/7/2000 2:07:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Response to "Sunday Morning Thoughts" (using paragraphs !). Just want to make one big point regarding possible ridiculous over-valuation of the stock market right now : If you ever listen carefully to various mathematical approaches used to "prove" that stocks are "sky high" right now, they usually boil down to one key point -- some sort of "yield" on stocks is way out of whack with yields on bonds (or 10-year notes, or T-bills). I hear these analyses (this is the "guts" of the famous Federal Reserve "secret" model for stock market valuation) and think : WHAT THE @%! makes anyone think that yields right now* in the bond market are absolutely the correct thing to use to determine stock market valuation levels ??? Personally (as some of you know), I think current interest rates (both at the short end of the yield curve, and the long end) are WRONG WRONG WRONG. (And, I am backing up this "bluster" with a very large position in the interest rate futures market). For a while now, I have thought that one thing the very high level of stocks is predicting is that U.S. interest rates are about to PLUNGE. If they plunge, then all of these "models" would show stocks NOT over-valued at all (at these levels). But, ironically, if and when interest rates plunge, stocks might go much higher from where they are today; and then -- actually be over-valued ... Jon.

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